The most-traded SHFE tin contract fluctuated upward during the night session, further dampening the purchase willingness of downstream enterprises. [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on January 23, 2026:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2602) opened slightly lower in the night session, then surged significantly, showing a considerably fluctuating trend and closed at 417,250 yuan/mt, up 1.70%.

Macro: (1) Goldman Sachs stated that due to rising memory prices, a flattening replacement cycle after Windows 10 support ends, and demand being pulled forward in Q4 2025, it lowered its global PC shipment expectations for 2026-2028. It expects global PC shipments to change -5% YoY in 2026 and +3% YoY in 2027 (previous expectations were +3% YoY for both years). (2) Samsung responded to rumors of memory price hikes, stating it did not implement an across-the-board 80% price increase for all products. Reports indicate Alibaba's chip subsidiary T-Head is planning an independent listing; Alibaba did not comment. Enflame's IPO application for the STAR Market was accepted, aiming to raise 6 billion yuan to boost AI chip R&D. Reports suggest Google will transfer the L10~L11 assembly orders for its TPU servers to Inventec for toll processing.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: Most smelters are expected to maintain stable production in January. (2) Demand side: Downstream purchases are relatively cautious, with high prices significantly suppressing actual consumption.

Spot market: The rebound in futures prices further dampened purchase willingness among downstream enterprises, returning the market to a state of "nominal prices without actual transactions." Overall trading remained sluggish, dominated by only small volumes of rigid demand.

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